According to the most recent polls of any consequence, the race between President Obama and Mitt Romney is a dead heat. Only in recent polls after the Democratic National Convention has Obama improved his lead to nearly seven percent.
But if NerdWallet’s infographic has any reliability, Romney could very well win the popular vote and lose the election. And that would put him in the category with such famous losers as Andrew Jackson, Samuel Tilden, Grover Cleveland, and most recently, Al Gore.
NerdWallet, one of the leading providers of unbiased quantitative analysis, launched infographic an electoral vote model that calculates Romney only has a 20 percent chance of defeating Obama.
“Throughout the conventions, we’ve seen tons of media coverage saying that national polls are close,” says Joanna Pratt, VP of Financial Markets, NerdWallet. “Unfortunately for Romney, national polls don’t determine elections. Only electoral votes matter and Romney is far behind.”
On its website, infographic has Obama at 201 electoral votes and Romney at 181. To win a candidate needs 270.
There are 156 electoral votes up for grabs and Romney would have to get 89, according to infographic, which believes he will at best get 25 votes.
These conclusions by infographic are based on findings from NerdWallet’s statistical Election Model. To arrive at these conclusions they examined the accuracy of 1500 historical presidential polls in predicting outcomes for the last two elections, it is cited on the website. “The results reflect over 30,000 model simulations based on these outcomes. The model is updated daily to reflect the most recent polling data for the 2012 presidential election,” a NerdWallet press release states.
So, should the Obama team just relax and exhale?
Of course not because with the spread of voter suppression from coast to coast, making it difficult for voters who might favor Obama, it’s all the more necessary to be vigilant and not lower your guard.
Those interested in knowing more about NerdWallet can visit http://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/markets/infographics/romney-election-odds/ and see how its Financial Markets team empowers consumers and investors by providing unbiased and transparent access to information on financial markets, politics, and the economy.