The company traded as high as $142.50 and last traded at $142.50. Approximately 1,400 shares were traded during trading. The rally is taking place in the context of two significant changes that are reshaping investor perceptions of the Virginia-based defense contractor turned AI trailblazer.
Other New Contracts (Defense: $1.4 Billion)
The U.S. Department of Defense announced early Thursday morning that Alt was the winner of a $1.4 billion contract to work on a next-gen autonomous reconnaissance system for the Air Force. The five-year contract is the biggest defense win for Alt since it controversially pivoted from traditional aerospace toward AI-driven systems in 2023.
The systems will employ Alt’s homegrown neural networks to run the satellite and drone imagery in real-time, according to Pentagon procurement records. “This proves out our dual-use technology strategy,” Alt CEO Kevin Miller said in a last-minute investor call at 10:30 AM EST. The agreement is likely to add 85 cents to annual EPS as soon as 2026, Raymond James analysts said.
NeuralCore AI Platform Exceeds Benchmarks
Also, Stanford University scientists released their replication studies showing the Alt AI NeuralCore platform outperformed Google DeepMind and OpenAI with 94.7% accuracy in challenging decision-making simulations. The peer-reviewed results, published late Wednesday evening by Science Robotics, sent shock waves through the AI investment community.
“What’s unusual about NeuralCore is we don’t need to train it on very much data,” Dr. Hannah Li, the paper’s lead author, told Bloomberg Technology in an interview Thursday morning. “That has huge implications for everything from medical diagnostics to battlefield logistics.”
Short Squeeze Accelerates Gains
The twin catalysts set off a furious short squeeze that drove Thursday’s gains higher. With 19.2% of Alt’s float short as of June 20 settlement, shorts scrambled to cover on the stock’s rejection of previous $136 resistance at 11:15 AM EST. Trading volume reached 18.7 million shares – three times the 30-day average – as computer-driven traders added fuel to the rally.
Frenzy took over the options markets, where trades in the July $150 calls exceeded more than 25,000 contracts by midday. The surge in implied volatility implies traders expect more upside through earnings.
Institutional Accumulation Signals Confidence
According to SEC Form 4 filings, on Wednesday, Capital World Investors added 2.1 million Alt shares, while Vanguard’s Growth Fund added 3.4% to their positions in pre-market on Thursday. The institutional buying indicates increased confidence in Alt’s long-term AI monetization plan.
“Alt has graduated from a pure-play defense stock to an AI leader with military grade validation,” Morgan Stanley tech analyst Rajiv Gupta wrote in a noon research note, raising the firm’s price target to $165.
Valuation Concerns Emerge
Not all analysts were convinced. Goldman Sachs reiterated a Neutral rating, stating that Alt now trades at 42x forward earnings — a 30% premium to its AI peer group. “Execution risks are still meaningful on both the defense contracting side and the commercial adoption of AI,” Goldman’s Sarah Chen said in a client memo.
The bears cite Alt’s track record with Pentagon deliverables, along with the specter of AI regulation. A group of bipartisan senators introduced a bill on June 24 that could subject military AI systems to rigorous auditing — a potential headwind for Alt’s defense business.
Broader Market Implications
Alt’s rally has lifted the whole AI defense complex, with peers like Palantir and Anduril getting 3-5% boosts in sympathy. The rally also reflects mounting investor interest in businesses focused on connecting commercial and military AI headwinds — a corner Alt has secured a first-mover position in.
Alt’s market cap was $48 billion as of Thursday when the market closed, making it the third-largest AI-in-defense contractor in the world. Whether it can continue this momentum will turn on flawless execution of its ambitious technology roadmap in the coming quarters.
